just thought it would be nice to start a thread about the price of oil/fuel, and have it be just about that- with no politics involved.

i'm starting to think that there is no bubble about to burst, and the price of oil and fuel is going to continue to rise. the oil companies don't care about about the ramifications of this, because i think they see this as the last hurrah for their industry, as our country (and the rest of the western world) will continue to become less oil dependant as alternative fuels become more prevalent. the investment bankers and speculators don't care because they have no reservations about milking any industry for all it's worth, then getting out just before it collapses and moving on to something else. i hope i'm wrong, but i see high prices being the norm for some time.
please keep your posts free of any politics.

 

Right now our fuel is 5.47 a gallon, just under $200 for a fill. EVERYTHING will go up because of these prices. Will they drop, I think so, not until the speculators get out though. Our housing prices are starting to slow as well, LOTS of over priced new homes, thanks to the speculators as well and when they leave its the locals holding the bag...

 

Too late, you already went there. There is no way you can talk about prices, speculators, world demand, etc without noticing the 800 lb gorilla in the room. Price is politics wether you are talking about free market capitolism, drilling locations, alternative fuel options, international demand based on economic and social development, OPEC, or investing. Even if you just let the oil companies do whatever they want on an international basis and back it up with aircraft carriers. Is there ANY way you can remove politics from oil? No.

Oh wait, yes there is. As a people we could all just say ENOUGH, and severely cut back our use. Yeah right. The only way that will happen is through high prices and that goes back to, you know what.

So if you want to avoid politics and oil, and you want to talk about oil, that leaves you with only talking about oil chemistry. Oh wait, that means talk of ultra low sulfer and carbon dioxide and global warming. Darn, now we're back into the forbidden subject.

Ok, you lead the way. I can't figure out how to talk about oil with the limits you set. Please set an example for me.

 

simple- oil companies are neither a political party or oganization, they are corporations. if you can't discuss oil companies without talking about their perceived allegiance to a political party or role in politics, don't post.
investment banks and speculators are not political parties or organizations. if you can't discuss them without talking about their ties to a political party or their role in politics, don't post. i would like to have a thread that discusses the price of fuel/oil, where people see it going, and it's effects, that makes no mention of it's relation to politics and does not get locked. seems pretty simple to me.

 

I'm waiting to see what the Chinese will do after the '08 Olympics. Could be a glut of oil/fuel on the international markets when they quit hording.

MikeyB

 

Ok, I'll ignore the 800 lb gorilla and try.

I think that prices will continue to rise, as they have been, until the bubble bursts because of a glut or because other investments look safer and more profitable. Then there will be a sizeable drop and eventual rebound to a stable, for a while, price.

Prices for all goods affected by oil will eventually have to stabilize in a new relationship. Prices for metals, corn, etc. Finally there will be some stability and a slow orderly rise.

This story does not include (insert unacceptable word that starts with a p here) instability or more invasions.

I'm not trying to offend or be difficult here. Please don't take offense.

I'm interested to see just how far prices can go before something breaks. If people are willing to put up with 6 or 10 dollar gas the oil suppliers will feel like chumps for not charging that all along.

Many people are going to be hurt by all this and the movement of money to other countries, and to a rich few here is just astounding.

I hope it's all peaceful and people just finally get it that they should use much less oil. Not do less, but do it with less oil. If the price goes down before the new mindset takes hold we'll be right back where we started. I can't wait to break the stranglehold the Middle East and the oil companies have on us.

 

no offense taken. understand that i'm trying to do something constructive here, so those interested can discuss the subject without having it break down into petty political allegations, and subsequently locked. there are lots of intelligient people who post here, with lots of great info and opinions, but if all threads just end up going down the same partisan road and get locked, it kinda defeats the purpose.

 

and when they finish getting their power fully up and running from the earthquake, and stop depending on generators running on diesel 24/7.

 

Sure the price of oil will drop. Buy that time bread will 20.00 a loaf everyone will be working for minimum wage. 85% of the people will be on some type of social assistance!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It's hard to say witch way things will go, for me my job is ending in November have to hit the pavement and look for something else, I know it's harder to do many things these days as the cost of living go's up my disposable income is almost none existence. TV is about my biggest source of entertainment, only go out for a drive if there is 5 or 6 stops to make, going out for dinner is stopping at costco for a 1.99 hot dog and I feel a make a good wage at 29.00@hr

 

not everyone's feeling the pinch

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080705/...s/super_yachts

 

Well I one of the "dirty" ones---, I work for Shell Oil and have for the last 30 yrs. Don't throw rocks at me yet, I'm not a CEO, I'm a hand, matter of fact I'm just a welder trying to keep the plant running, I can tell you guys some history about the workings of a unit, if you want to hear it.

Don't take me wrong either, but I don't think "big oil" comp. are the bad guys---- let me explain what I know, I know Royal Dutch Shell has 3% of the worlds crude oil, I think Exxon has like 8% of the crude, ------ so who has the rest???? It's all the countries that absoulutely hate us as a country.
Russia, Middle East, Africa, oh and South America.

From what I understand the margin's on a gallon of gasoline is about 4 cents, or they making record profits, yes, but it's inline with normal business, their NET profit runs around 8 %, this is after all bills are paid. The big Pharmaceuticals make around net 20%------ all I'm trying to say is their net profits is not out of line.

Do I like the high prices, not hardly, but there is nothing to do about it until the price of crude drops, the only way that can happen is have more of it, ----- I think we're being screwed by Congress right now, need to drill now, where ever it takes to get it, we have plenty in the ground, and we lead the world in getting it out, if they'd let us drill.

The part that really irks me is, now don't take this the wrong way, this is a business, people think they deserve oil and gasoline, but guys it's a business plain and simple------ don't try and make them do "alternative" fuels, we'd be lost as a goose in the fog. We know oil, that's it, if somebody thinks they can make an alternative fuel, then produce the capital and get it done.

The talk of the "government" getting them in line is all BS-----
No 1/ Can somebody tell me just ONE government agency that runs efficently----- just one

No 2/ Who in the government would run the units I work in, ----- you think the dodge trucks or complicated, I'd like to take ya'll on a tour of just one of our units----- the overhead is mind boggling. IE: I welded on ONE 3/4" gate valve the other day, now this is a valve that looks just like your water hose valve on the outside of your house, same size 3/4"----- Anybody want to guess how much the ONE valve cost?-------- It just so happened the price sheet was stuck in the box, normally it's not. It was on sale for $5,400.00

No 3/ I weld some 8" process pipe that runs $1,400.00 per ft. and that was the price back in the mid 90's, I bet it's doubled since then if not more, it's 60% nickel composition.

No.4/ Anybody ever seen the size of the offshore platforms and how much steel is involved in just one platform------ it's a small floating city.

No. 5/ The scariest part to me is that Exxon is the only US oil comp. ----- if the government does step in and try to take over, I really believe that company's like Shell, BP, and the rest would just pack up and move overseas and then we'd get to pay to have it shipped back to us at a premium.

No. 6/ Canada has more oil sitting under it right now than we do, how come their stuff is more expensive--------- government, plain and simple, taxes, taxes and more taxes. Just like that guy that posted on this forum from England talking about selling his CTD because diesel was $12 a gallon or something close to that, then he goes on to tell you that the reason is because 74% of the price is TAXES!!! Now that sucks.

So if the margin on gasoline is 4 cents a gallon here and the taxes on a gallon of gas is 16 or 18 cents or what ever it is, I think that's close, who's making the most money the oil comp. or the government, and the government dosen't have to take any risk, trying to keep that "controlled explosion" inside the pipes and vessels like we do 7/24.

I'll be willing to answer any question I can if ya'll want me to, remember this is coming from a simple welder----- but I have a lot of experience in the industry.

I'm tired of typing, over and out.

 

speculators...baaaaaaaah humbug.....who needs'em they are killing it right now...

here is something i learned this week and it really got me mad.

ok....a futures contract secured 1000 barrels of oil... at price of (we will use 140 to keep easy) so simple math shows us that that has a value of 140000 dollars...now this is the part that hurts us and it will be come very clear...speculators only need to put up 10 percent of the ACTUAL value of that future contract...THATS RIGHT....in not so many words....they only come up with 14000 dollars to secure 140000 in value...when that ticket gets called in august they collect big time....based on the fact that every one else is only putting up the same 10 percent of actual value and driving the price per barrel up and up and up and up...come collection time they make BIG MONEY....because by aug...they will be trading at 160,165,170 or what ever...and you go waving around your contract and 1000 barrels that you purchased at 140 and only put up 14000 to secure, and sell it off at that 170 per barrel.

here is what needs to happen IMO.....NARROW that gap....make them lay out say 70 percent of the actual value....and just see how many come running...to buy that 140-145 dollar barrel....

that is why IMO we need to REGULATE these "future contract traders"

NCA

 

i absolutely agree with everything you have said.....it is SPOT ON....except the the BOLD and ITIALICS type i highlighted.....

EXXON and CHEVRON are the ONLY US OWNED OIL COMPANIES here on good old N. AMERICA

 

i know it's hard, but let's leave the 'congress won't let us drill' and we're getting screwed by fuel taxes' out of it. someone is just going to respond with another 'congress is doing this' and 'this party wants more taxes' and we'll be back where we started- with partisan rhetoric and another locked thread. thanx.......
the bottom line is that the oil companies are making record profits (for any company in the history of the country), and one executive made $400 million (salary and 'compensation') in a single year (many others are taking in as much as $50 million/year in regular salary). the oil companies are not suffering in the least from the record prices that are making some of them $40 billion+/year in profits.

 

Sorry this can not be accurately discussed without being political. period.

Nice try though.


Tim